FEBRUARY 1998

IN THIS ISSUE:

1. Board Meeting April 16. Speaker to be Announced.

2. Amb. Larson Shares Insights on US-EU Talks on Cuba Dispute

3. Are Real Changes Emerging from Pope’s Visit to Cuba?

4. Cuban Churches’ Gains

5. Release of Political Prisoners

6. New US Initiatives to Accelerate Food and Medicine Shipments

7. More Americans Visiting Cuba

8. Meetings Examine Cuba

9. New Publications on Cuba

1. LUNCH & AMCHAM CUBA ANNUAL MEETING THURSDAY, APRIL 16. Mark your calendars. Tad Szulc, renowned author and journalist, will address AmCham Cuba members and lunch guests in the First Amendment Room of the National Press Club. His view of changes in process in Cuba in suggested by the title of his talk: “The Bells are Tolling: Cuba after the Paper Visit.” Mr. Szulc will draw on two of his outstanding books, Fidel; A Critical Portrait, and Pope John Paul II - The Biography, years of travel and reporting. AmCham Cuba’s Board will meet at 9:30 am.

2. IN CLOSED SESSION, MEMBERS HEAR ABOUT NEGOTIATIONS WITH EUROPE ON EMBARGO. Ambassador Alan P. Larson, Assistant Secretary of State for Economic & Business Affairs, spoke February 11 at the National Press Club. He reviewed talks he has held with the European Union (EU) on its protest to the WTO (World Trade Org.) on US use of “secondary boycotts” against Europeans who do business on former US holdings in Cuba, and on US efforts to encourage Europe to promote democracy, human rights, and a market economy in Cuba.

Ambassador Larson said the US is having success in fostering a multinational approach to promoting democracy in Cuba. He said we are seeking broad approaches via international institutions on settlement of property claims, an international registry of claimants, and that the US has recently begun “to get traction with the Europeans....[We are] close to being on the same playing field.” Breakthroughs should lead to definitive negotiations and discussions between the EU and the US that will shape international policy and consensus on Cuba.

Larsen said discussion of The Libertad Act may be separated from broader negotiations on the MIA (Multilateral Investment Act), so that some agreements can be reached promptly. (The Journal of Commerce reported February 19 that MIA had fallen victim to lack of fast-track approval due to “complacency and presidential politics”).

3. REAL CHANGES FOLLOWING POPE’S VISIT? Amidst a flood of speculation on results of the dramatic January visit by John Paul II to Cuba, and despite the fact that non-Cuban events overshadowed media breporting during the the visit, many commentators conclude that real gains were made by the Cuban people, encouraged by the Pope to rethink religion, human rights, freedom,

and their own self-worth in the world. Though some observers believe ideas and opinions pointing to a better life appear to be taking root among the people of Cuba, some still question the benefits. Dissident-watcher Elizardo Sanchez said renewed hopes have “more in common with the [false dawn of] the Prague Spring of 1988... than with the Poland of 1989". Others, however, have the view that it is too soon to assess long-term changes in practices of the communist regime.

One who disagrees with expectations of change is AmCham Cuba member Maria Werlau, author and consultant on foreign investment in Cuba and on international relocation. Based on her trip to Cuba during the Pope’s visit, she says that Cuba “is not in a process of transition yet,” and its “selective and distorted opening to ...capitalism” cannot “in and of itself [to] effect meaningful change.” She warns against policies that assume abrupt collapse of the Castro regime, which she says is “nowhere close to falling.” Her report is enclosed for our corporate members.

The following “hard news” reports have emerged on Cuban events since the Pope’s visit.

4. CUBA’S CATHOLIC CHURCH MAY HAVE MADE REAL GAINS. Both before and after the Pope’s visit, there were increases in church attendance, baptisms, confirmations, religious weddings and funerals, said Time, January 26. Cuba is also witnessing more religious activities and clerics, with government permitting both the building of a third seminary in Cuba and the issuing of more work visas to foreign priests and nuns, wrote The Washington Post on January 27.

Though Cuba’s Catholic Church feels enlivened at the moment, the media reports that religious leaders realize their increased freedoms can be revoked at any time. They still rely on foreign support and hope that improved US-Cuban relations will sustain expansion of their activities inspired by the papal visit.

5. POLITICAL PRISONERS RELEASED. Cuba on February 19 claimed that it has freed all the 300 prisoners, including 70+ political detainees, as promised in response to the Pope’s clemency appeal. Skeptics doubt that the release reflects a change in Cuba’s stance on prisoners held for either “political” or common crimes. El Nuevo Herald of Miami and El Pais of Madrid said February 19 that 15 persons had been incarcerated for political reasons since John Paul II’s visit.

6. NEW INITIATIVES WOULD EXPAND FOOD & MEDICINE SHIPMENTS TO CUBA. In early 1998, some US groups initiated new drives:

a) Americans for Humanitarian Trade with Cuba (AHTC), seek approval of food and medicine sales. One AHTC spokesman, David Rockefeller, said “the time has come to lessen the burden that the Cuban people have been forced to bear.” Speaking for the National Council of Churches, Dr. Joan Brown Campbell said the denial of “wheat and grains, baby formula and spare parts for incubators is behavior unworthy of...the US.” US Chamber Vice President Willard Workman said US business “takes no comfort when life sustain-ing food and medical products... [cannot] be traded with people who need them.” As a coalition of prominent US businessmen, politicians, and representatives of the Cuban-American communities with various points of view on the embargo, AHTC supports legislation sponsored by Representatives Torres (D-CA) and Rangel (D-NY) and Senators Dodd (D-CT) and Rams (R-MN). (The media reported February 26 that Fidel, newly re- elected as President, as part of another seven hour speech, had denounced as “humiliating” the US proposal before Congress for limited aid distribution through US charitable organizations.)

AHTC’s Advisory Council includes Dwayne Andreas (Archer Daniels Midland), Phil Baum (American Jewish Congress), former Treasury Secretary Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr., ex-Secretary of Defense and NSA Advisor Frank Carlucci, former World Bank President A.W. Clausen, ex-Congressman Sam Gibbons, recent US Trade Representative Carla Hills, and ex-Federal Reserve Chairman Paul A. Volcker.

b) Cuban American Alliance Education Fund also supports legislation. Besides supporting S.1319 and HR 1951 to remove restrictions on US-Cuba trade in food and medicines to benefit Cuban women and children by removing restrictions on US-Cuba trade in food and medicines, the Alianza, in cooperation with AHTC, responded to a Vatican press release by hailing Cuba’s release and pardon of political prisoners.

c) Senator Helms’ unexpected call for food aid and medicine provokes hostile Castro reaction. Senator Helms (R-NC), building on a CANF (Cuban American National Foundation) initiative, announced he would take advantage of the “historic opportunity created by the Pope’s visit to work with the Cuban-American community to authorize shipments to Cuba’s needy of donated food and medical supplies “possibly including US government assistance,” provided that distribution is assured by NGOs (non-governmental organizations). Probably because of observations made by two of his staffers (Marc Thiessen and Roger Noriega) during the Pope’s visit, Helms’ proposal called for distributions by CARITAS, a large Catholic relief organization which maintains a relatively independent profile. Commentators speculated that no legislation may be needed to carry out Helms’ proposal, unless for donations from the “Food for Peace” program.

In a TV address February 4, Castro “furiously rejected Helms’ initiative,” the wires reported, presumably because the Helms’ proposal would not moderate the embargo itself.

d) Jewish organizations continue to funnel needed goods to Cuba, including mammograph machines, vitamins and heart and allergy medicines donated by US pharmaceutical firms. They publicize hand carrying of such items by leaders of B’nai B?rith and other groups in the US.

7. MORE US TRAVELERS TO CUBA. Judging by delays in both Treasury processing of US licenses for trips to Cuba and visa issuance by the Cuban Interests Section, the papal visit heightened interest on the part of Americans, particularly children of Cuban exiles, to visit families and study the Cuban situation. Future organized trips that have come to our attention include the following:

“US-Cuba Business Summit” in Cancun and Havana March 4-6. This seminar is offered by Alamar Associates which sponsored 1992-93 Euromoney meetings on Cuba in Cancun, London, and Havana. Kirby Jones, Alamar President, says US business executives will meet US experts on Cuba in Cancun, Mexico, and will spend a day in Havana on a trip arranged by Cuba to avoid US rules prohibiting spending dollars in Cuba. Participants will meet with Cuban decision-makers on trade, investment, and finance headed by Carlos Lage, Vice President of the Council of Ministers, and sectoral business specialists. The $1875 fee will cover meetings, briefing materials, non-Cuban air charter to Havana, arrangements for appointments with business counterparts in Cuba, and breakfast, lunch, and receptions in Cancun where hotel reservations are being held. For information including visa arrangements, call Alamar at 202-778-1718.

International Policy Institute’s next trip, April 19-26, will cost $1450, covering IPI membership, Nassau-Havana round-trip, Hotel Nacional accom-modations and two meals, meetings with Government and private sector representatives, visas and US Treasury licenses. To learn if there is still space or adequate lead-time, call 301-564-0577.

Trips for research specialties April-December. The Center for Cuban Studies offers 10-day trips which focus variously on the Jewish community and other religions, architecture and historic preservation, art and artists, public health, education, Cuba’s African roots, sociopolitical issues for Latin Americanists, social services “in crisis,” Cuba’s legal system, and film and the performing arts including the Havana Film and Jazz Festivals. Participation is limited to researchers. Fees of $1000-$1800 will cover round-trip air fare from Nassau or Cancun to Havana, breakfast, all seminar-related transport inside Cuba, and the Cuban visa. The Center can be contacted at 212-242-0559, fax 212-242- 1937, or e-mail: cubanctr@igc.apc.org.

Plans for April performances in Cuba by the Ballet Hispanica of New York, the premier US interpreter of Hispanic culture in dance, have come to our attention. Guided by two Cuban-born members of the company, cameras will follow the dancers as they perform and meet Cuban dancers and musicians, in preparation for broadcast in September as the first of the 1998 PBS series, Great Performnces. Famed TV producer Lucy Jarvis (“The Kremlin,” “The Louvre,” “The Forbidden City in China”) is now turning her sights to Cuba.

Although substantial production funds are assured, sponsorship opportunities are still available. Sponsors would gain prominent recognition. Interested parties should contact AmCham Cuba.

8. MEETINGS PROLIFERATE. Recent meetings on Cuba that we have attended or had reports about were sponsored by Brookings Institute, the Council on Foreign Relations, CSIS (Center for Strategic & International Studies), Inter-American Dialogue, and the North American Committee. An experts group examined an especially interesting study of “Cuba: Case Study in Unilateral Economic Sanctions,” in which CSIS’s Ambassador Ernest Preeg raises questions about the effectiveness of the embargo.

We were interested by a recent New Republic characterization of the range of voices being raised: Those questioning US policies include the “perennial liberal” who advocates engagement with Castro and emphasizes its hardships on the Cuban people, “free marketeers” who stress senseless restraints on trade, and foreign-policy advocates who “love...to draw a dictator out of his shell”. Conversely, the February 9 article noted, some still fight the cold war and unwittingly give Castro a scapegoat for his failures. The article asserts that the embargo hurts the Cuban people far less than communism does, that family remittances go to those who need it, but that Castro benefits from their millions of long-distance calls.

Three upcoming meetings are:

Effects of the US embargo on Cuba’s nutrition and health, April 16. Georgetown U., with ASCE (Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy) and the Universidad Latinoamericana de la Libertad Friederich Hayek, will provide in-depth analysis of the embargo’s real impact on health and nutrition. Probable speakers include Jorge Perez-Lopez on macro-economic issues affecting health and nutrition, Antonio Gayoso on Cuban agricultural policy impact on food availability, Richard Nuccio on US policy implications for health and nutrition, and others on private sector donations to Cuba, legal aspects of the embargo and licensing of humanitarian donations, tourism, impact on health, foreign medical missions, the market for pharmaceuticals, comparative costs, and medical product availabilities from abroad.

Economic and social policy interests of the US, Canada, and Mexico, March 26-28. A North American Committee conference at Washington’s Luxury Collection Hotel, with US, Canadian, and Mexican representatives, scholars, and officials, will examine topics important to US business, including business principles and secondary boycotts, impact of the Asian crisis on North America, North America’s auto industry, sustain- able development in North America, global warming, and competitiveness. Registration for the $400 meeting is arranged by Kim Healey at the National Policy Institute, tel. 202-884-7630.

Recent political and economic developments, March 13, in Massachusetts. The Inter-American Dialogue and Harvard University offers a dozen experts (Jorge Dominguez, Marifele Perez-Stable, Ana Julia Jatar, church and Cuban officials) on the economy and political issues (Lillian Pubillones Nolan, Inter-American Dialogue 202-463-2577).

9. NEW PUBLICATIONS ON CUBA

The New Yorker of January 26, focused on Cuba, is a comprehensive “good read.” It offers thought- ful articles on Castro’s successor, the shoot-down of Brothers to the Rescue, why Castro and John Paul II agree in some areas, rebuilding Havana, life in Havana as an expatriate in ”the plague years,” cartoons, poems, and a good story about a returned Cuban smuggling a gift into Havana.

The Center for International Policy has launched an initiative to “chip away at Helms-Burton” which “stands in the way” of achieving US goals. Author Dr. Wayne Smith offers a strategy to achieve five US goals: to eliminate flows of refugees and drugs, advance human rights, benefit both countries economically and compensate for expropriations, reduce complications with third countries, and assure a peaceful transition.

Business Guide to Cuba (2d Edition), described as “the best single volume on the market to devise a strategy for doing business in Cuba when the time is right,” examines transportation, marketing strategy, critical risks and problems, competitive analysis, and infrastructure. Teo Babun, author, includes 50+ maps and charts of need-to-know facts to explain Cuban business opportunities. Amb. Preeg’s economic analysis gives a comprehensive “take” on the Cuban economy. ($300 @ Fomalhaut Press, tel.610-408-9110, fax 408-9575)

* * *

We look forward to seeing you on April 16.

Sincerely,

Phoebe T. Lansdale

Executive Director

February 26, 1998

[Editorial Committee: AmCham Cuba members Bruce Henderson and Henry Goethals]